Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cba…47b3 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate16%7W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 84% −$13
politics 11% −$6
other 3% −$1
sports 1% −$60
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 7% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 29 -10.4% -19.0% 7% 0% -17.1%
all 44 -5.0% -14.1% 16% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 2% -10.0%
10% -22.3% 2% -18.6%
15% -29.8% 2% -26.4%
20% -36.7% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses7 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage630d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $36 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 09 $17 $0 +1%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Predators vs. Canucks Mar 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $8 +$7 +85%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Mar 11 $35 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $66 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $66 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Feb 09 $66 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 23 $13,605 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $16 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $264 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $760 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $250 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $291 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 21h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 24h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 46h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 24d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.17 · official $20.17 (match) · 258 history records