Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:29:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cb7…c46f world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$7
other 13% $0
politics 8% +$5
culture 7% $0
weather 3% −$4
sports 2% $0
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 13 -6.2% -15.2% 8% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 13 -6.2% -15.2% 8% 0% -11.3%
all 31 -3.5% -12.7% 32% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 3% -10.9%
10% -21.0% 3% -19.4%
15% -28.7% 3% -27.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage473d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 -19%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $21 −$3 -15%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $73 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $57 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $12 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 28 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 21 $3 −$1 -48%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $16 $0 -0%
MD Eastern Shore vs. Coppin State Mar 20 $12 $0 -4%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 20 $11 +$5 +45%
Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3? Mar 02 $16 −$4 -24%
Will Isabella Rossellini win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscar Mar 02 $17 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $32 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $33 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $0 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $33 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $13 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $20 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $33 28h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $29 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $2 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $25 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $6 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $17 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $5 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records