Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7cb6…a366
other · 222 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$227 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$219 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses47 / 173
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)220 / 222
History coverage62d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 2 History 220 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$42
14 days−$91
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 31¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-51%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta 2026? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $104 −$4 -4%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Jun 14 $23 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $40 +$7 +18%
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 Jun 14 $10 −$2 -21%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $39 −$2 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 10 $54 −$5 -10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 10 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $24 −$1 -5%
Natural Disaster in 2026? Jun 09 $25 −$4 -16%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -16%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -12%
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Jun 08 $29 −$2 -7%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 08 $5 $0 -10%
Discord IPO before 2027? Jun 08 $5 $0 -4%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Jun 08 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Jun 08 $58 −$5 -8%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -16%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? Jun 08 $20 −$9 -43%
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher Jun 08 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Ma Jun 05 $10 −$7 -65%
Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026? Jun 04 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026 Jun 04 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 04 $20 −$5 -24%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 03 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -9%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? Jun 03 $10 −$4 -42%
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Jun 03 $31 −$5 -17%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027? Jun 02 $10 −$4 -44%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? Jun 02 $9 −$1 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? May 31 $20 −$2 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? May 31 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 $0 -2%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? May 29 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 29 $10 −$1 -8%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? May 29 $20 −$1 -7%
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? May 29 $10 −$3 -27%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? May 28 $11 −$1 -5%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026? May 28 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? May 27 $10 $0 +5%
Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat? May 27 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the Republican Party win the SC-06 House seat? May 27 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat? May 27 $20 −$9 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% −$116
world 27% −$32
politics 13% −$11
sports 9% −$7
finance 5% −$16
crypto 4% −$28
tech 4% $0
economics 3% −$10
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 50m
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 50m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 50m
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 SELL Yes 9¢ $4 51m
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $4 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $4 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3d
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 74¢ $4 3d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 75¢ $5 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 4d
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $4 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -9.9% -18.5% 4% 4% -16.2%
≤30d 64 -15.8% -23.8% 8% 3% -21.8%
≤90d 220 -7.1% -16.0% 21% 10% -18.2%
all 220 -7.1% -16.0% 21% 10% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 10% -18.2%
10% -24.0% 3% -26.0%
15% -31.4% 2% -33.2%
20% -38.1% 2% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.67 · official $0.67 (match) · 1135 history records