Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7C 0x7cb2…e655 crypto 780 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$245 (-2%) realized −$246 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate83%650W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day85.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$24
14 days−$50
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$44
weather 9% −$70
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 5% -10.6%
≤30d 714 -2.2% -11.6% 82% 9% -10.8%
≤90d 779 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 8% -9.7%
all 779 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 8% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses650 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)779 / 780
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day85.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 779 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 71¢ 69¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 28¢ 30¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $98 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.57 · official $33.02 · 3500 history records