Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cb1…984e sports 413 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 178d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,669 (-2%) realized −$1,622 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%219W / 293L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 178d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$6,311
crypto 33% −$7,092
other 2% −$409
finance 0% −$16
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -49.8% -54.6% 16% 15% -74.8%
≤30d 123 -49.8% -54.6% 16% 15% -74.8%
≤90d 128 -50.1% -54.8% 16% 15% -74.6%
all 512 -19.5% -27.2% 43% 40% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 40% -27.9%
10% -34.1% 34% -34.8%
15% -40.5% 28% -41.1%
20% -46.3% 20% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$186 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,622
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses219 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)512 / 413
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$262
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 272 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 17 $384 −$384 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Suns Jun 17 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: AFC Ajax (-0.5) Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $339 −$339 -100%
Wizards vs. Bulls Jun 17 $23 +$7 +30%
LoL: Oh My God vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Bulls vs. Jazz Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Heat vs. Lakers Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $116,000 on October 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Hawks Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
FC Augsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$50 -2496%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Suns vs. Warriors Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Warriors vs. Heat Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming (BO3) Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Pistons vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $71 −$65 -92%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-09? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Wizards vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $233 −$233 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Suns vs. Clippers Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Jun 17 $633 −$633 -100%
LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Real Betis vs. Girona: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-0.5) Jun 17 $43 −$35 -82%
LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Jun 17 $27 +$5 +18%
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexandre Muller Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Utrecht vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Hawks vs. Clippers Jun 17 $20 −$15 -74%
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5 Jun 17 $280 −$279 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Pacers vs. Warriors Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline Jun 17 $161 −$161 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $246 −$246 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $47 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $191 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $0 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $31 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $21 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $4 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $13 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $30 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $22 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $32 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $4 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $4 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $6 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 92¢ $92 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 3500 history records