Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7cb1…624e politics 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,140 (+0%) realized +$1,140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%29W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,741per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$32
14 days−$51
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$149
other 39% −$124
sports 9% +$1,367
world 3% −$7
culture 1% −$3
economics 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 97 -9.4% -18.0% 8% 5% -9.5%
all 148 +1.6% -8.1% 20% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 11% -9.1%
10% -16.9% 11% -17.8%
15% -24.9% 9% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,775) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$7 · ×9.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$973
Realized+$1,140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses29 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 150
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,741
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 99¢ $725 $724 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $249 $248 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $5,378 −$7 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $4,437 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,402 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $2,262 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,159 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,458 −$5 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,643 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $3,053 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,375 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,906 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $7,450 −$8 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,571 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $5,078 −$7 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,490 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $85 +$37 +44%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,285 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $5,234 −$6 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,102 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $47 +$63 +134%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,775 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $483 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $747 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $419 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $3,248 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $6,797 −$10 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $3,976 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,298 −$3 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $86 −$86 -100%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,167 −$2 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $75 +$38 +50%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $3,817 −$5 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $6,052 −$8 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $5,210 −$6 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $3,469 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $725 47m
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $739 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $740 3h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $670 5h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $671 7h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $804 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $805 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $748 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $726 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $727 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $846 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $848 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $734 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $735 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $885 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $887 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,037 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,039 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,038 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,040 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,038 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,040 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,045 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,041 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $932 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $933 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,026 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $972.79 · official $972.79 (match) · 576 history records