Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cac…621d crypto 284 markets active 4d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$33 (+2%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%125W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16
14 days−$49
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$121
sports 22% +$55
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.4% +6.2% 50% 50% +26.8%
≤30d 248 -18.6% -26.4% 39% 38% -18.9%
≤90d 269 -14.3% -22.4% 42% 40% -14.7%
all 284 -13.0% -21.3% 44% 40% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 40% -13.2%
10% -28.8% 37% -21.5%
15% -35.7% 32% -29.1%
20% -42.0% 27% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses125 / 159
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)284 / 284
History coverage122d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 284 Trades
no open positions (111 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5 −$1 -13%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $35 +$17 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $19 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 07 $36 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$4 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$15 -94%
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$5 +500%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$10 +92%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $12 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 51¢ $4 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 57¢ $5 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 90¢ $39 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 47¢ $5 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 54¢ $13 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $20 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $10 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 49¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 22¢ $2 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 22¢ $2 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 76¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $5 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 49¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 754 history records