Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:14:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7ca6…424b politics 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%51W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$12
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$5
other 25% −$4
crypto 8% +$1
sports 5% −$3
world 5% −$6
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 88 -0.6% -10.0% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 163 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 0% -10.3%
all 205 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses51 / 154
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)205 / 209
History coverage98d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 15 $33 $0 -1%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 14 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $21 $0 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $22 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $49 −$7 -13%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $45 $0 -1%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 01 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 29 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 39m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 50m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $8 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 4h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 4h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 5h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 6h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 6h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 7h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $6 7h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 8h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 8h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 9h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 9h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $6 11h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 13h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $10 14h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $8 16h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 17h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $10 17h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.05 · official $28.05 (match) · 1110 history records