Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7ca5…6a38 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$5
politics 23% −$3
crypto 15% −$5
world 8% −$1
sports 8% −$2
tech 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$944) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage81d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $951 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $908 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2,008 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $990 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? May 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? May 23 $19 $0 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,015 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 20 $919 −$2 -0%
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 19 $37 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 19 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $961 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Apr 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 30 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Mar 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 30 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $72 1h
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $943 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $904 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $646 3h
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $260 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $908 3h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 37h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 38h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,005 38h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 38h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $790 38h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $198 38h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $15 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 39h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $990 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $17 27d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $34 27d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $12 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 27d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $22 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 27d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 96¢ $28 29d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $51 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records