Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7ca0…74de crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$52 (+3%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate77%58W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$26
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +2.8% -7.0% 79% 55% -7.1%
≤30d 75 +2.5% -7.3% 77% 52% -8.4%
≤90d 75 +2.5% -7.3% 77% 52% -8.4%
all 75 +2.5% -7.3% 77% 52% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 52% -8.4%
10% -16.2% 37% -17.1%
15% -24.3% 25% -25.1%
20% -31.7% 16% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$23 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses58 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage10d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$19 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +28%
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$22 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $76 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records