Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c9e…db3d
other · 427 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,231 +43%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,872 · open −$591
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,103
Realized+$2,872
Unrealized−$591
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses167 / 149
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions128
Markets (closed)316 / 427
History coverage32d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day105.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 128 History 316 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days+$113
14 days+$417
30 days+$2,790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $33 $84 +$51 (+154%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $77 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 6.0% and 7.0%? No 51¢ 73¢ $55 $78 +$23 (+41%)
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $53 $39 −$14 (-26%)
Will Randall Arrington be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $24 $37 +$14 (+57%)
Megan Thee Stallion and Klay Thompson engaged in 2026? Yes 7¢ 20¢ $12 $37 +$25 (+204%)
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-20%)
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $32.5B by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $43 $26 −$17 (-40%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $51 $25 −$26 (-51%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $23 +$6 (+38%)
McDonald's CEO out by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-15%)
Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+29%)
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $32 $18 −$14 (-44%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $11 $17 +$5 (+45%)
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between -0.9% and -0.5%? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-23%)
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Amouranth divorced by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+44%)
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $43 $15 −$28 (-66%)
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Macklemore (Benjamin Hammond Haggerty) buy the Seattle Seahawks? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-40%)
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will S.O.S. Romania (SOS) be included in the next Romanian government? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-31%)
Will The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Patek Index hit $103,000 (LOW) by April 30? Jun 13 $0 +$8 +3103%
Will Hasan Piker be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +194%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 13 $45 −$6 -13%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $74 +$46 +63%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $32 −$4 -14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $18 −$6 -36%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +147%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte Jun 12 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.50% and 2.99%? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -30%
Will D.K. Metcalf be traded? Jun 11 $8 +$6 +71%
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 11 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Leo Zacky advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kyle Langford advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $27 −$11 -42%
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Fred Simon be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $6 −$3 -54%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $7 −$6 -86%
Another Elon baby by June 30? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +28%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? Jun 09 $38 +$153 +399%
Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? Jun 09 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30? Jun 09 $17 −$9 -52%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $8 $0 -6%
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 08 $47 +$33 +72%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? Jun 08 $15 −$6 -40%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480? Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? Jun 08 $6 $0 +5%
Will Illinois use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m Jun 08 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30? Jun 08 $88 −$3 -4%
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Jun 08 $41 +$1 +2%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Jun 08 $4 +$5 +126%
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? Jun 08 $16 −$11 -72%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the June meeting? Jun 08 $1 $0 -34%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $117 +$19 +16%
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 07 $2 +$9 +500%
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30? Jun 07 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$1,761
politics 17% +$309
world 15% +$192
tech 7% −$11
sports 4% −$72
crypto 3% +$27
economics 2% +$100
finance 2% +$6
culture 1% −$34
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4m
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exa BUY Yes 5¢ $0 35m
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 10¢ $1 59m
Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Joe Girardi be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phi SELL Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: Help Us LFO vs Can You Be My Enemy (BO1) - Asia Pac BUY Can You Be My Enemy 0¢ $0 3h
Will Joe Girardi be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phi SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Joe Girardi be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phi BUY Yes 90¢ $5 3h
Will Joe Girardi be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phi BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3h
United x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $49 6h
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Amouranth divorced by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 13h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 0¢ $0 13h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 0¢ $10 15h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 1¢ $12 15h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 7¢ $36 15h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL No 0¢ $12 17h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL No 1¢ $39 17h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL No 1¢ $0 17h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL No 1¢ $0 17h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL No 1¢ $0 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 2¢ $0 18h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 2¢ $0 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+70.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +45.7% +31.8% 42% 37% +1.0%
≤30d 313 +84.3% +66.7% 53% 47% +34.2%
≤90d 316 +88.2% +70.3% 53% 47% +35.1%
all 316 +88.2% +70.3% 53% 47% +35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover105.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +70.3% 47% +35.1%
10% ← realistic here +54.0% 41% +22.2%
15% +39.1% 38% +10.4%
20% +25.5% 34% -0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,103.02 · official $1,103.13 (match) · 3500 history records