Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7C 0x7c9c…5c40 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+9%) realized −$15 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$139
crypto 30% −$38
sports 2% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 67% 67% +1.1%
≤30d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 67% 67% +1.1%
≤90d 8 +6.7% -3.5% 75% 75% -1.7%
all 8 +6.7% -3.5% 75% 75% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 75% -1.7%
10% -12.7% 25% -11.1%
15% -21.1% 25% -19.7%
20% -28.9% 25% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$36 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage41d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 91¢ $25 $92 +$67 (+269%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $10 $47 +$37 (+374%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $200 +$31 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $108 +$56 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? Jun 21 $70 −$42 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $41 +$7 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 19 $39 +$20 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 19 $22 +$4 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $56 −$31 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 0m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 13m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 82¢ $200 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $204 9h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 63¢ $231 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $200 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $164 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $108 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? SELL No 46¢ $27 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? BUY No 66¢ $42 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? SELL No 100¢ $42 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? BUY No 75¢ $9 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? BUY No 75¢ $3 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? SELL No 77¢ $7 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? BUY No 81¢ $29 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? BUY No 12¢ $3 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? SELL No 11¢ $3 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? BUY No 36¢ $10 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? SELL No 1¢ $9 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? BUY No 1¢ $13 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.69 · official $150.02 · 39 history records