Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7C 0x7c9a…587e crypto 1547 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$7,724 (-26%) realized −$7,777 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate82%1258W / 284L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$3,310
sports 3% +$138
other 3% −$235
weather 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -5.7% -14.7% 77% 55% -4.9%
≤30d 681 -5.8% -14.7% 82% 22% -15.6%
≤90d 1542 -5.2% -14.2% 82% 24% -21.0%
all 1542 -5.2% -14.2% 82% 24% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 24% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 17% -28.5%
15% -29.9% 11% -35.5%
20% -36.8% 6% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$30 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized−$7,777
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1258 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1542 / 1547
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? No 65¢ 82¢ $133 $169 +$36 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? No 51¢ 58¢ $99 $112 +$14 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? No 61¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+64%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 25? No 54¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 268 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 24 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY No 50¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 65¢ $132 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY No 56¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY No 55¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY No 63¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.19 · official $310.12 · 3500 history records