Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7C 0x7c99…8b23 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-6%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$10
other 38% −$18
crypto 14% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.0% -5.0% 57% 57% +0.1%
≤30d 7 +5.0% -5.0% 57% 57% +0.1%
≤90d 7 +5.0% -5.0% 57% 57% +0.1%
all 7 +5.0% -5.0% 57% 57% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 57% +0.1%
10% -14.1% 57% -9.5%
15% -22.4% 57% -18.3%
20% -30.0% 43% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$49 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $48 +$56 +116%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $96 +$37 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$45 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$50 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $103 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $48 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $35 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $133 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $96 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $96 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $55 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $51 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $56 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $55 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records