Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:47:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7C 0x7c99…d72d crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$49 (-16%) realized −$14 · open −$35

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate70%14W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day9.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)-17.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-9.0%	-17.7%	70%	65%	-15.1%
≤30d	20	-9.0%	-17.7%	70%	65%	-15.1%
≤90d	20	-9.0%	-17.7%	70%	65%	-15.1%
all	20	-9.0%	-17.7%	70%	65%	-15.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.7%	65%	-15.1%
10%	-25.6%	40%	-23.2%
15%	-32.7%	25%	-30.7%
20%	-39.3%	5%	-37.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -36% → late +18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$14

Unrealized−$35

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses14 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage6d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day9.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	80¢	0¢	$35	$0	−$35 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 17	$20	+$4	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 17	$20	+$7	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 17	$15	+$8	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$5	+45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$2	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 17	$30	−$25	-82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Jun 16	$15	+$4	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Jun 16	$20	+$7	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Jun 16	$20	+$2	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Jun 16	$15	+$5	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$2	+19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$12	−$12	-96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$25	−$13	-51%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 12	$5	+$1	+18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$5	+$2	+43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$1	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$5	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$5	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$5	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$15	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$5	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$5	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$5	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$5	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$5	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$5	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$5	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$5	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$5	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$5	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$5	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$5	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$5	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$5	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$5	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$5	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	55m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 69 history records