Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7C 0x7c99…9729 crypto 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+2%) realized +$67 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate77%219W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$24
14 days+$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$57
crypto 38% +$36
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 +3.5% -6.4% 80% 61% -8.9%
≤30d 285 +2.4% -7.4% 77% 61% -8.7%
≤90d 285 +2.4% -7.4% 77% 61% -8.7%
all 285 +2.4% -7.4% 77% 61% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 61% -8.7%
10% -16.3% 32% -17.4%
15% -24.3% 18% -25.4%
20% -31.8% 11% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses219 / 66
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)285 / 288
History coverage27d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Under 81¢ 83¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Houston Astros 71¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$3 +53%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $18 −$9 -50%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 +$4 +29%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$6 -30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 71¢ $5 4m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 81¢ $7 8m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 74¢ $8 9m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 41¢ $0 10m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 44¢ $9 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $18 20m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 56m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs BUY No 67¢ $10 57m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 77¢ $14 59m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY No 55¢ $10 1h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) SELL Chicago Cubs 44¢ $14 1h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 61¢ $20 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $9 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $5 1h
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots BUY Yes 58¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.07 · official $12.08 (match) · 658 history records