Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c98…495f other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$2
other 27% +$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 4% $0
finance 4% $0
weather 2% +$1
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 8 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -10.2%
all 38 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage492d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $36 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $38 −$2 -4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $18 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $39 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Dec 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 20 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 18 $9 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19 May 12 $9 −$1 -7%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 09 $9 $0 +2%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $9 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $9 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 14 $9 $0 +3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.6% and 4.7% on April 11? Apr 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 18 $12 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? Mar 04 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 4m
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 4m
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $37 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $38 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $11 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $28 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $38 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $39 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 31d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? SELL Yes $0 152d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 364d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records