Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c98…a0df other 242 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$47
sports 25% −$24
politics 9% −$5
crypto 6% −$5
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 82 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 242 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage130d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $134 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $788 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $300 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $324 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $355 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $237 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $317 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $279 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $149 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $290 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $90 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 3h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $38 4h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 6h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $38 10h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $38 12h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $38 13h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $38 14h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 20h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 22h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $38 22h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $38 23h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 26h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 28h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $38 28h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $38 29h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 31h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 32h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 35h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 37h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 38h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 39h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 44h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 46h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $39 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1433 history records