Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7C 0x7c96…3eef world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,506 (+23%) realized +$5,509 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$474per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days+$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% +$5,134
other 4% +$493
sports 3% −$2
crypto 1% −$2
culture 0% −$102
economics 0% −$21
tech 0% −$15
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.2% -14.2% 0% 0% -14.2%
≤30d 2 +28.6% +16.3% 50% 50% +33.6%
≤90d 12 +224.6% +193.7% 58% 58% +57.3%
all 47 +57.5% +42.5% 40% 38% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.5% 38% +11.0%
10% +28.9% 36% +0.4%
15% +16.4% 26% -9.3%
20% +5.0% 26% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +98% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$416 vs −$86 · ×4.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$5,509
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage371d
Avg bet$474
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 23 $225 −$12 -5%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $809 +$504 +62%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr May 23 $1 +$1 +65%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 23 $20 +$85 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $18 +$418 +2324%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $25 +$116 +462%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 05 $108 −$108 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Mar 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Mar 24 $230 −$230 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Mar 24 $676 −$676 -100%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August? Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Another Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $60 +$256 +426%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,000 +$2,333 +233%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jan 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? Oct 08 $3,877 −$379 -10%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Oct 05 $50 −$2 -5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Oct 05 $50 −$4 -8%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Oct 05 $200 −$114 -57%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 05 $150 −$150 -100%
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen Oct 05 $150 +$42 +28%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET? Oct 02 $13,645 +$3,472 +25%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET? Oct 01 $270 +$62 +23%
Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET? Sep 30 $225 −$105 -47%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30? Sep 30 $751 +$114 +15%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Jul 02 $44 −$44 -100%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Jun 29 $250 +$70 +28%
Mariners vs. Twins Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +74%
Iran strike on Qatar today? Jun 23 $110 +$126 +115%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $218 +$134 +61%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 22 $15 +$134 +895%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $19 30h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $195 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $195 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY Yes 49¢ $205 19d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY Yes 49¢ $205 19d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 19d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 19d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr BUY Yes 60¢ $1 31d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $10 31d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $10 31d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $10 31d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $10 46d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $10 46d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $10 57d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $10 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 67d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 69d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 69d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 69d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $436 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 79d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 84d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.47 · official $72.48 (match) · 181 history records