Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c95…470d politics 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$4
sports 21% −$2
other 14% −$1
crypto 10% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 2% +$1
world 2% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.9% -13.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 3 -3.9% -13.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 4 -2.9% -12.2% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 48 -6.9% -15.8% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage231d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $5 $0 -11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $4 $0 -7%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $100 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 06 $1 $0 -50%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $95 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $206 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $101 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 25 $98 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $2 $0 -10%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $98 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 5? Jan 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 24 $103 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $96 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 14 $103 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 05 $103 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $106 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 30 $103 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $203 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $3 $0 -10%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $3 $0 -11%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $1 $0 -13%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Nov 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 08 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $99 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 40h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 40h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $94 40h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $95 2d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $101 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $101 27d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 47d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 121d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $102 129d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $102 131d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 131d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 133d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 133d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 133d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 136d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 136d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $94 139d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 139d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 140d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 140d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 142d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 145d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.58 · official $100.58 (match) · 259 history records