Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c90…420d
other · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$5 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage292d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $46 +$4 +8%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $9 −$2 -21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $74 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $37 −$2 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $23 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $32 +$2 +7%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 27 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will Mauritius win on 2025-09-09? Sep 11 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $24 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $28 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Aug 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% $0
other 30% +$2
sports 12% $0
culture 7% +$3
crypto 5% $0
politics 4% −$1
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $2 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $12 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $12 16h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 20h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 22h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $39 25h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 29h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $10 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $10 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 25¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $34 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $35 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $35 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $12 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $15 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $29 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $40 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $33 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $1 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $6 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 11 -1.4% -10.7% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 -1.4% -10.7% 27% 0% -9.4%
all 40 -0.9% -10.3% 42% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.0%
10% -18.9% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records