trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | +2.3% | -7.5% | 50% | 10% | -8.2% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +2.3% | -7.5% | 50% | 10% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 47% | 5% | -8.9% |
| all | 23 | -8.4% | -17.1% | 48% | 4% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.1% | 4% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -25.1% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -32.3% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -38.9% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 77¢ | $40 | $41 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 14 | $43 | +$1 | +1% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $40 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $14 | +$1 | +4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $41 | +$3 | +7% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 10 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 09 | $19 | +$2 | +13% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 09 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $70 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam | Apr 25 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W | Apr 24 | $70 | +$6 | +9% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Apr 23 | $30 | −$10 | -32% |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the | Apr 22 | $79 | +$1 | +1% |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Apr 11 | $251 | +$8 | +3% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 11 | $251 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Apr 10 | $276 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | Apr 10 | $276 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Crin Antonescu? | Jun 25 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Jan 15 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |