Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:59:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c8d…0d4e crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+3%) realized +$42 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate89%124W / 16L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day147.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +1.4% -8.3% 89% 56% -7.6%
≤30d 140 +1.4% -8.3% 89% 56% -7.6%
≤90d 140 +1.4% -8.3% 89% 56% -7.6%
all 140 +1.4% -8.3% 89% 56% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 56% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 6% -16.4%
15% -25.1% 4% -24.5%
20% -32.4% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses124 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day147.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 0¢ 68¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $210 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.42 · official $5.33 · 276 history records