Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c8d…f822 other 32 markets active 14h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$131 (-4%) realized −$11 · open −$120
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$2,608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$147
world 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.3% -14.3% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 8 -5.3% -14.3% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 8 -5.3% -14.3% 0% 0% -13.8%
all 8 -5.3% -14.3% 0% 0% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 0% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 0% -22.0%
15% -30.0% 0% -29.6%
20% -36.8% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,608
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Open positions24
Markets (closed)8 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 16¢ $1,009 $979 −$30 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 32¢ $91 $95 +$4 (+5%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 89¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+2%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 68¢ $90 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 56¢ $99 $86 −$13 (-13%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $91 $86 −$5 (-5%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $91 $82 −$9 (-10%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $93 $81 −$13 (-14%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $74 $72 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 60¢ $61 $59 −$2 (-4%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $91 $39 −$52 (-57%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-14%)
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+21%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 30¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 −$8 -8%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 −$1 -1%
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $7 $0 -4%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 −$6 -6%
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -5%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $87 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $4 14h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $1,009 14h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 65¢ $15 14h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 43¢ $94 14h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $101 14h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $6 14h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $96 14h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $6 14h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $6 14h
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $23 14h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 44¢ $85 14h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 44¢ $4 16h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 44¢ $16 19h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 20h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 22h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 26h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 30h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 38h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No $1 38h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 41h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 42h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 42h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 42h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $22 42h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 42h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 42h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 42h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 42h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,607.81 · official $2,607.84 (match) · 70 history records