Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7C 0x7c8d…e726 sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$527 (+11%) realized +$656 · open −$129
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate100%35W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$98
14 days+$129
30 days+$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$349
other 10% +$15
tech 8% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.0% +4.0% 100% 38% -1.4%
≤30d 18 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 39% +0.0%
≤90d 35 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 43% +0.3%
all 35 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 43% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 43% +0.3%
10% -4.2% 20% -9.3%
15% -13.5% 14% -18.1%
20% -22.0% 6% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$656
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses35 / 0
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage49d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Seattle Orcas 45¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $149 +$27 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $134 +$4 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $130 +$4 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $130 +$1 +0%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $13 +$7 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $195 +$2 +1%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $187 +$8 +4%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $143 +$45 +31%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $146 +$4 +2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $129 +$15 +12%
Will Afghanistan win? Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $115 +$12 +11%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $155 +$6 +4%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $153 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 28 $66 +$8 +12%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 28 $154 +$13 +9%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $204 +$83 +41%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 21 $227 +$15 +6%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $174 +$19 +11%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $149 +$24 +16%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $223 +$5 +2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $218 +$3 +1%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $209 +$10 +5%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $203 +$6 +3%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $180 +$24 +13%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $127 +$50 +40%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $153 +$11 +7%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $149 +$2 +2%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $112 +$36 +32%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $111 +$2 +1%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand May 02 $86 +$13 +16%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $10 +$19 +180%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs United Arab Emirates May 01 $62 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas SELL Texas Super Kings 100¢ $40 18m
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 82¢ $33 1h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 45¢ $131 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 84¢ $24 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 84¢ $114 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 36¢ $11 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 35¢ $10 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 97¢ $134 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $130 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland SELL England 100¢ $131 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 100¢ $130 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 100¢ $20 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 63¢ $13 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $195 4d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 96¢ $9 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 96¢ $53 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 96¢ $10 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 96¢ $96 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 96¢ $19 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 76¢ $141 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 85¢ $3 7d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 100¢ $150 7d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 98¢ $20 7d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 98¢ $72 7d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 98¢ $54 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 89¢ $129 7d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 72¢ $2 7d
Will Afghanistan win? SELL Yes $0 11d
Will Afghanistan win? SELL Yes $4 11d
Will Afghanistan win? SELL Yes $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 154 history records