Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c8d…f317
world · 32 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$16,290 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16,264 · open +$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,026
Realized+$16,264
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage111d
Avg bet$12,180
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,392
7 days+$1,392
14 days+$6,758
30 days+$6,656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $1,000 $1,026 +$26 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $72,000 +$1,392 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $138,652 +$5,366 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 26 $500 −$64 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 14 $600 −$38 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $54,106 +$2,171 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 03 $880 −$30 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 29 $73,503 +$5,252 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 29 $335 −$5 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $120 −$18 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 27 $528 +$10 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $5,000 +$273 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $300 +$34 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 08 $1,781 +$220 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 08 $17,577 +$989 +6%
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-Apr Apr 08 $162 −$142 -88%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 08 $260 −$8 -3%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 02 $5,000 −$309 -6%
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher Apr 02 $200 −$130 -65%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $8,000 +$476 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 31 $5,000 +$447 +9%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $200 +$48 +24%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Mar 31 $101 +$7 +7%
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher Mar 24 $200 −$5 -2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 04 $1,000 +$204 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 03 $2,366 +$68 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $100 +$10 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 02 $152 +$6 +4%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Mar 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Feb 27 $108 +$60 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 98% +$16,060
finance 1% +$273
other 0% −$42
politics 0% −$8
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $21,958 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $5,441 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $7,000 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $7,486 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $7,734 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $35,000 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $20,555 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $20,000 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $10,218 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $10,000 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $8,017 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $505 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $682 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $67 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $363 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 4 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 0% -6.7%
≤90d 25 -12.1% -20.5% 52% 12% -5.8%
all 31 -6.8% -15.7% 58% 16% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 16% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 6% -14.8%
15% -31.1% 3% -23.0%
20% -37.9% 3% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,025.86 · official $1,025.86 (match) · 251 history records