Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7c8b…e4d4 sports 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$467 (-1%) realized −$435 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate76%78W / 24L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2,010now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days−$6
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$646
other 32% +$61
crypto 1% +$66
world 0% −$118
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -22.0% -29.4% 50% 45% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -18.9% -26.7% 52% 48% -8.8%
≤90d 33 -21.0% -28.5% 61% 30% -10.9%
all 102 -11.0% -19.5% 76% 19% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 19% -11.0%
10% -27.2% 18% -19.5%
15% -34.3% 14% -27.3%
20% -40.7% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$537) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$170 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$2,010
Realized−$435
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses78 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)102 / 112
History coverage165d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $600 $618 +$18 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $500 $560 +$60 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 44¢ $243 $308 +$66 (+27%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $110 $88 −$22 (-20%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 26¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $91 +$38 +42%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $253 +$132 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 +$404 +132%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $561 −$554 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $202 +$70 +34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $503 +$120 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $609 +$641 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 12 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $71 +$2 +3%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $100 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $110 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $100 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 29 $100 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $100 $0 +0%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Vietnam vs. Bangladesh end in a draw? Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Feb 13 $337 +$28 +8%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $10 $0 +1%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 09 $113 +$3 +3%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 4 Winner Feb 09 $187 +$33 +18%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-02-06? Feb 07 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - RES Showdown Spring BLA Feb 07 $110 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jan 30 $243 +$57 +24%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jan 30 $316 −$316 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 30 $141 −$141 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 29 $327 +$273 +84%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 29 $275 −$275 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Invitational Group D Jan 29 $702 +$1 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 29 $248 −$248 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 29 $181 +$67 +37%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 28 $432 +$370 +86%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 28 $104 +$77 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 26m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 33m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 34m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $101 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $102 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $21 5h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $205 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 67¢ $30 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $61 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 30h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,010.30 · official $2,010.30 (match) · 401 history records