Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7C 0x7c87…d10e crypto 1085 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,651 (-2%) realized −$1,628 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate55%685W / 559L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day48.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,259
world 0% +$13
tech 0% +$3
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -90.1% -91.1% 7% 6% -93.8%
≤30d 241 -70.0% -72.9% 18% 16% -78.0%
≤90d 1244 -21.9% -29.3% 55% 30% -16.1%
all 1244 -21.9% -29.3% 55% 30% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 30% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 19% -24.2%
15% -42.3% 14% -31.5%
20% -47.9% 10% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$21 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,628
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses685 / 559
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1244 / 1085
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day48.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 457 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 3500 history records