Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7c87…ae84 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$105 (+12%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$17
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$16
sports 32% +$78
crypto 3% +$5
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -11.5% -19.9% 50% 42% -7.4%
≤30d 46 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 43% +0.1%
≤90d 46 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 43% +0.1%
all 46 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 43% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 43% +0.1%
10% -21.1% 35% -9.5%
15% -28.7% 26% -18.3%
20% -35.7% 15% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage11d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 +$9 +57%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $32 +$10 +29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$14 -88%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $48 +$7 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$13 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$4 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 −$16 -47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$5 +29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 +$19 +39%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 −$5 -66%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$10 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 +$11 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -92%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -87%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 +$16 +87%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$6 +29%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$54 +182%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 +$24 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 12h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 12h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 13h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 13h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 14h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 14h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 14h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 14h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $7 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $7 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.76 · official $32.76 (match) · 171 history records