Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7c86…9e3d other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+6%) realized +$7 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$31
other 25% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -24.0% -31.2% 67% 67% -3.3%
≤30d 3 -24.0% -31.2% 67% 67% -3.3%
≤90d 3 -24.0% -31.2% 67% 67% -3.3%
all 3 -24.0% -31.2% 67% 67% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 67% -3.3%
10% -37.8% 0% -12.6%
15% -43.8% 0% -21.0%
20% -49.3% 0% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $138 +$21 +15%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $74 +$10 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $74 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $75 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $64 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $18 40h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 59¢ $54 40h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $56 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.74 · official $63.74 (match) · 13 history records