trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 29% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 46% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 46% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 24 | +5.4% | -4.6% | 67% | 4% | -7.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.6% | 4% | -7.3% |
| 10% | -13.8% | 4% | -16.1% |
| 15% | -22.1% | 4% | -24.2% |
| 20% | -29.7% | 4% | -31.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | No | 75¢ | 76¢ | $32 | $33 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 20 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 20 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 19 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $25 | −$1 | -6% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $72 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $45 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $99 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $134 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $91 | +$4 | +4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 30 | $76 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 29 | $8 | $0 | +6% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 28 | $37 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | Mar 27 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? | Mar 24 | $31 | +$1 | +2% |
| Robert Morris vs. Alabama | Mar 22 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| Hofstra vs. Stony Brook | Mar 20 | $15 | +$15 | +100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 by Thursday? | Feb 26 | $15 | $0 | +0% |