Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7c83…ace2 crypto 103 markets active 5d ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate86%81W / 13L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$1
politics 28% −$2
sports 21% −$2
other 9% +$2
economics 7% −$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 47 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 94 +0.4% -9.2% 86% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses81 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)94 / 103
History coverage156d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 25? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? May 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? May 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16? May 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 15? May 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 13-19? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? Apr 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 9? Apr 14 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 1? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 30? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 29? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29? Apr 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 28? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 19? Mar 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? Mar 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 9? Mar 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 12? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $19 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 6d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $19 6d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 24d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $14 24d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 24d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $14 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $15 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $13 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 33d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $51 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $14 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $13 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $11 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 63d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.59 · official $114.02 (match) · 230 history records