Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

7C 0x7c82…e8d2 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$49 (-26%) realized +$9 · open −$59

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-2.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+8.0%	-2.2%	100%	33%	-2.6%
≤30d	3	+8.0%	-2.2%	100%	33%	-2.6%
≤90d	3	+8.0%	-2.2%	100%	33%	-2.6%
all	3	+8.0%	-2.2%	100%	33%	-2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.2%	33%	-2.6%
10%	-11.6%	0%	-11.9%
15%	-20.1%	0%	-20.4%
20%	-28.0%	0%	-28.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized+$9

Unrealized−$59

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Team Vitality	56¢	4¢	$55	$3	−$52 (-94%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	EDward Gaming	20¢	0¢	$7	$0	−$7 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev	Jun 19	$41	+$3	+8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$32	+$3	+11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 19	$50	+$3	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev	SELL Daniil Medvedev	62¢	$44	41m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London	BUY Team Vitality	56¢	$56	1h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev	BUY Daniil Medvedev	56¢	$41	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	SELL Spirit	69¢	$36	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	61¢	$32	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	SELL Spirit	75¢	$53	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Spirit	70¢	$50	2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY EDward Gaming	20¢	$7	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.45 · official $4.44 (match) · 8 history records