Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c7d…4dea weather 158 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,702 (+8%) realized +$1,183 · open +$519
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%21W / 83L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day139.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$245
7 days+$334
14 days+$560
30 days+$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$1,150
other 1% −$28
world 0% −$37
sports 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -62.6% -66.2% 14% 13% -3.3%
≤30d 104 -15.4% -23.4% 20% 19% -4.4%
≤90d 104 -15.4% -23.4% 20% 19% -4.4%
all 104 -15.4% -23.4% 20% 19% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 19% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 17% -13.6%
15% -37.4% 13% -21.9%
20% -43.6% 12% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$274 vs −$62 · ×4.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,471
Realized+$1,183
Unrealized+$519
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses21 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions53
Markets (closed)104 / 158
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$134
Trades / day139.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 45¢ 72¢ $636 $1,033 +$397 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 12¢ 25¢ $90 $192 +$102 (+113%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 25¢ $116 $132 +$17 (+15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $3 $10 +$8 (+250%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+40%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 25¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+56%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+65%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 14¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+125%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+83%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+128%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+38%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $796 −$607 -76%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 +99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 −$10 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $67 −$50 -74%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$16 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $406 −$240 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,894 +$593 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 −$29 -90%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$16 +354%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 −$32 -89%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $306 −$23 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $54 −$40 -74%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,188 +$1,043 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $337 −$191 -57%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 −$9 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $728 +$352 +48%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $208 −$187 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $457 +$271 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $106 −$38 -36%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $181 −$171 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $58 −$47 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 15m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 27m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 29m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 32m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 71¢ $7 44m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $28 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,470.59 · official $1,470.60 (match) · 3500 history records