Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7C 0x7c79…f911 world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$39 (+2%) realized +$39 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$442per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-7.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-0.3%	-9.8%	0%	0%	-9.8%
≤30d	4	+2.0%	-7.7%	25%	0%	-7.6%
≤90d	4	+2.0%	-7.7%	25%	0%	-7.6%
all	4	+2.0%	-7.7%	25%	0%	-7.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.7%	0%	-7.6%
10%	-16.5%	0%	-16.4%
15%	-24.6%	0%	-24.5%
20%	-32.0%	0%	-31.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$2 · ×18.43 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×18.43 per $1 lost it wins $18.43

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$39

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage8d

Avg bet$442

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	Jun 22	$406	$0	+0%
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	Jun 22	$424	−$2	-0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?	Jun 14	$468	+$41	+9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by	Jun 14	$468	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	SELL No	94¢	$406	1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	BUY No	94¢	$406	3h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	SELL No	96¢	$422	3h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	BUY No	96¢	$424	4h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?	BUY No	92¢	$468	8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by	SELL No	94¢	$468	8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by	BUY No	94¢	$468	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records