Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c75…4303 crypto 879 markets active 6h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$421 (-17%) realized −$417 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate47%401W / 455L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day69.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$354
14 days−$459
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$242
weather 26% −$39
other 6% −$83
tech 4% −$80
finance 2% +$4
politics 1% −$12
sports 0% −$9
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 716 -22.9% -30.2% 55% 20% -23.4%
≤30d 856 -30.0% -36.7% 47% 17% -26.4%
≤90d 856 -30.0% -36.7% 47% 17% -26.4%
all 856 -30.0% -36.7% 47% 17% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.7% 17% -26.4%
10% ← realistic here -42.8% 9% -33.4%
15% -48.3% 6% -39.9%
20% -53.4% 4% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$417
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses401 / 455
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)856 / 879
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day69.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 856 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 18¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+162%)
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by 20–30%? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+149%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 41¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Yes 47¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 8 above $1,030? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No 44¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 48¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 221 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $2 +$6 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +245%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -44%
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 5PM ET? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +237%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 14, 6PM ET? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 11h
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 14, 6PM ET? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 11h
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 14, 6PM ET? BUY No 39¢ $2 11h
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 14, 6PM ET? BUY No 24¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 14, 6PM ET? BUY No 41¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 6PM ET? BUY No 28¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 6PM ET? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 5PM ET? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 14, 2PM ET? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 14, 2PM ET? BUY No 39¢ $2 14h
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 14, 2PM ET? BUY No 32¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 2PM ET? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 1PM ET? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 1PM ET? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 31¢ $2 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 30¢ $2 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 31¢ $2 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 27¢ $2 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 12PM ET? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 12PM ET? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 17h
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 14, 11AM ET? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 14, 11AM ET? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 10AM ET? BUY No 30¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.20 · official $17.97 (match) · 1691 history records