Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c6c…1f86
other · 75 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7,184 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,199 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,117
Realized−$7,199
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)67 / 75
History coverage65d
Avg bet$3,851
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%
Chart Positions 8 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$57
14 days−$1,275
30 days−$22,785
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $622 $653 +$31 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $562 $566 +$4 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $342 $291 −$51 (-15%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $247 $286 +$39 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $147 $133 −$14 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $84 $93 +$9 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $252 $0 −$252 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $767 $0 −$767 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $371 $0 −$371 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1,594 $0 −$1,594 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? No 70¢ 0¢ $4,946 $0 −$4,946 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $226 +$65 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,918 +$622 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $72 −$65 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $424 +$1,650 +389%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $387 −$371 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $443 −$239 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 11 $3,810 −$1,279 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $64 −$61 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $160 −$148 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $211 −$117 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $94 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $992 +$385 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5,795 −$1,620 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $264 −$252 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $155 −$151 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,989 +$1,908 +96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4,416 −$1,287 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 31 $2,888 +$466 +16%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene May 31 $898 −$651 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 30 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,794 +$1,735 +97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $392 +$77 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $1,792 −$415 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $5,005 −$4,946 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $2,378 +$566 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $6,863 +$850 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $647 −$605 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $58 −$52 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $930 −$638 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,442 +$166 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 21 $1,483 −$1,483 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut May 20 $3,046 +$40 +1%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $5,760 −$2,845 -49%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 19 $1,971 +$47 +2%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,451 +$155 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,882 +$1,723 +92%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? May 18 $2,749 −$2,749 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490? May 18 $1,773 −$1,773 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $673 −$374 -56%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $3,120 −$2,147 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $5,143 +$5,054 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $14,437 −$9,340 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $10,921 −$4,560 -42%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1520? May 12 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1460? May 12 $224 +$44 +20%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $24,898 −$2,602 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 08 $3,708 −$31 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 83% −$12,574
politics 8% +$10,064
tech 5% −$6,338
culture 5% +$1,664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $56 4m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 24m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 28m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 28m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 28m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $183 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $160 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.1% -15.9% 30% 30% -8.9%
≤30d 46 -30.1% -36.7% 35% 30% -31.1%
≤90d 67 -19.2% -26.9% 43% 33% -11.9%
all 67 -19.2% -26.9% 43% 33% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 33% -11.9%
10% -33.9% 21% -20.3%
15% ← realistic here -40.3% 16% -28.0%
20% -46.1% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,117.30 · official $2,117.31 (match) · 2149 history records