Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c6c…1d5d sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%63W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$82
14 days−$75
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$7
other 5% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 47% -16.0%
≤30d 121 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 50% -10.1%
≤90d 121 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 50% -10.1%
all 121 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 50% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 50% -10.1%
10% -20.7% 50% -18.7%
15% -28.4% 50% -26.6%
20% -35.4% 48% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses63 / 58
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage15d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 62¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$27 +54%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $29 −$29 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $56 +$1 +1%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $4 +$11 +262%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $20 +$21 +102%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $38 +$22 +56%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 +$19 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$8 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 +$17 +57%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $24 +$18 +73%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $27 +$18 +69%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$33 +325%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $15 +$10 +66%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +72%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 +$17 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $17 +$10 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$13 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 +$10 +66%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 +$13 +90%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $58 +$30 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 +$14 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 43m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $9 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $17 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $50 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $29 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $26 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 64¢ $56 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $56 6h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 7h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 38¢ $5 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $20 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $40 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $38 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $39 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $26 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $9 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 47h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $46 47h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $24 47h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.62 · official $67.62 (match) · 215 history records