Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7c68…0208 crypto 227 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+5%) realized +$45 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%120W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$10
14 days+$21
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$90
other 9% $0
sports 5% +$46
politics 2% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +4.8% -5.2% 68% 55% -13.3%
≤30d 138 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 43% +1.5%
≤90d 225 -16.3% -24.2% 53% 36% -7.9%
all 225 -16.3% -24.2% 53% 36% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 36% -7.9%
10% -31.5% 27% -16.7%
15% -38.1% 19% -24.8%
20% -44.2% 12% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses120 / 105
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)225 / 227
History coverage77d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +44%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$18 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$32 +310%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.60 · official $10.60 (match) · 532 history records