Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7C 0x7c67…a0e0 sports 498 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,285 (-4%) realized −$2,258 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%224W / 267L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$731now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$688
7 days+$1,857
14 days+$1,978
30 days+$2,124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$2,178
crypto 7% −$730
other 4% +$451
world 0% +$5
finance 0% −$15
culture 0% +$13
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -2.8% -12.0% 42% 42% +39.9%
≤30d 46 +5.5% -4.6% 48% 48% +27.6%
≤90d 198 -15.1% -23.2% 41% 41% -12.5%
all 491 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 45% -13.2%
10% -20.2% 43% -21.5%
15% -27.9% 41% -29.1%
20% -35.0% 37% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$104 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$731
Realized−$2,258
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses224 / 267
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions7
Markets (closed)491 / 498
History coverage140d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 81¢ $300 $365 +$65 (+22%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 43¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $406 +$371 +91%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$40 -40%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$243 +238%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 +$273 +90%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $256 +$60 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $51 −$32 -62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $406 −$219 -54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $117 +$109 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +146%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $152 +$181 +119%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $62 −$52 -84%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $102 +$104 +102%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $408 +$825 +202%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 +$168 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $405 −$400 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$184 +180%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $204 +$337 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $188 +$242 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $305 −$300 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $203 +$189 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $101 +$77 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $71 +$38 +54%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $41 +$41 +101%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) May 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $101 +$91 +90%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $303 19m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $80 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $61 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 35h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $304 35h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 27¢ $316 35h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 21¢ $256 37h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $187 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $225 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $117 2d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes $10 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $730.67 · official $729.08 (match) · 1162 history records