Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c65…edd1 crypto 571 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$698 (-2%) realized −$698 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate85%483W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$809
weather 19% +$88
other 1% −$76
sports 1% +$47
world 1% $0
politics 0% −$8
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.8% -25.7% 40% 20% -12.4%
≤30d 10 -17.8% -25.7% 40% 20% -12.4%
≤90d 10 -17.8% -25.7% 40% 20% -12.4%
all 571 -3.5% -12.7% 85% 9% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 9% -11.3%
10% -21.1% 5% -19.8%
15% -28.7% 3% -27.6%
20% -35.7% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$21 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$698
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses483 / 88
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)571 / 571
History coverage178d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 571 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $55 +$35 +64%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $79 −$5 -6%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $72 −$20 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $72 +$81 +112%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $90 −$69 -76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $280 $0 -0%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 25 $138 +$3 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $126 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 23 $53 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 23 $52 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 22 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 22 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 22 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1PM ET Mar 22 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 22 $1 +$1 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 22 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 22 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 22 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 22 $49 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 22 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 22 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 22 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 22 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 22 $158 −$111 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 22 $154 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 22 $155 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 22 $152 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 22 $154 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 22 $151 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 22 $150 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 22 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 22 $141 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 22 $143 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 22 $144 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 22 $146 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 22 $139 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 22 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 22 $136 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 21 $134 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 21 $133 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 21 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 21 $132 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $55 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $75 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $79 10h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 20h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $49 20h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 20h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 21h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $21 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 74¢ $39 22h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $140 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $140 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $140 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $140 23h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 SELL Division One 88¢ $141 46h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Division One 86¢ $138 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $138 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $126 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $53 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $52 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1778 history records