Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c63…df32 politics 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$277 (+0%) realized +$277 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%19W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,649per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$32
14 days−$65
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$151
other 43% −$71
sports 4% +$362
economics 3% −$6
culture 2% −$5
world 1% −$18
crypto 1% +$90
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 +7.4% -2.8% 12% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 101 +8.5% -1.9% 18% 15% -9.4%
all 115 +7.8% -2.5% 17% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 14% -9.4%
10% -11.8% 14% -18.1%
15% -20.4% 14% -26.0%
20% -28.2% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,155) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$6 · ×6.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized+$277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses19 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)115 / 117
History coverage102d
Avg bet$1,649
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $204 $204 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $164 $165 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $3,186 −$4 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $2,105 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,100 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $4,057 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $4,032 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,146 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $4,309 −$6 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $6,622 −$7 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,585 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $4,858 −$7 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 15 $3,343 −$5 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $4,865 −$5 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $4,658 −$5 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $192 $0 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,642 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $3,195 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $6,339 −$9 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,459 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,686 −$4 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $60 +$71 +119%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4,049 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $4,796 −$7 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $68 +$113 +165%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,897 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,865 −$3 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $49 +$61 +124%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $870 +$1 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $2,600 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $4,407 −$5 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $5,384 −$6 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $991 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $945 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,765 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,421 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,718 −$4 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $204 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $689 23h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $691 24h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $979 46h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $980 2d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $604 3d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $605 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $845 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $846 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $684 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $685 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,016 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,018 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $414 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,206 5d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $164 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $415 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,208 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $717 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $718 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $927 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $928 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $347 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $347 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $306 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $819 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $306 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $820 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $572 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $573 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $368.85 · official $368.85 (match) · 400 history records