Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7C 0x7c62…fb9e crypto 682 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 130d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,764 (-7%) realized −$1,763 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%323W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$448
14 days−$272
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,505
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -8.6% -17.3% 22% 6% -19.5%
≤30d 251 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 22% -3.1%
≤90d 468 -4.1% -13.3% 41% 35% +11.0%
all 680 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 43% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 43% +9.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 42% -1.2%
15% -24.2% 42% -10.7%
20% -31.6% 42% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$27 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$1,763
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses323 / 357
Open positions2
Markets (closed)680 / 682
History coverage130d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 680 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $34 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $66 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$13 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $67 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$6 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $72 −$12 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $38 +$5 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $22 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $35 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$30 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $10 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $9 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $10 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $35 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $35 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $27 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.34 · official $67.33 (match) · 3500 history records