Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c60…b19c other 63 markets active 12h ago coverage 200d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 200d only
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24,142 (+7%) realized +$23,501 · open +$641
Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate63%41W / 24L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$5,320per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$2,349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,360
7 days+$9,360
14 days+$9,360
30 days+$6,345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$12,223
sports 44% +$20,257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+75.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +37.4% +24.3% 75% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 19 -40.3% -46.0% 32% 21% -0.2%
≤90d 43 +20.2% +8.7% 53% 28% -7.0%
all 65 +94.0% +75.5% 63% 34% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +75.5% 34% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here +58.7% 29% -10.6%
15% +43.4% 28% -19.2%
20% +29.3% 25% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +94% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,831) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +178% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
28.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$915 vs −$237 · ×3.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.58 per $1 lost it wins $6.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$2,349
Realized+$23,501
Unrealized+$641
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses41 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 63
History coverage200d ⚠
Avg bet$5,320
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,708 $2,349 +$641 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sam Darnold win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 15 $29,145 +$5,957 +20%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 15 $11,263 +$347 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $223 +$453 +203%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Jun 15 $466 +$905 +194%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 15 $1,756 +$1,324 +75%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $15,740 +$411 +3%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $376 −$368 -98%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $195 −$118 -61%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $233 −$226 -97%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,875 −$1,831 -98%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $341 −$331 -97%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $24 −$24 -97%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 27 $11,611 +$323 +3%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 27 $62,149 +$628 +1%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 21 $759 −$441 -58%
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes Mar 20 $59,400 −$1,680 -3%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $32,150 +$361 +1%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $335 −$128 -38%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $13 +$5 +36%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $146 +$2 +2%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $130 −$3 -3%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $1,111 +$628 +56%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $49 +$703 +1422%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $5,614 +$226 +4%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $70 −$45 -64%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $94 +$17 +18%
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 20 $97 −$19 -19%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $6 +$9 +140%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $60 +$7 +11%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $4 +$4 +100%
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $5,872 +$254 +4%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Mar 20 $1,070 −$311 -29%
Will North Carolina win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $1,716 +$109 +6%
Will NC State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $26 +$33 +128%
Will Auburn win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 19 $20,039 +$154 +1%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 12 $61 +$31 +50%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 09 $2,524 +$66 +3%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 07 $335 +$275 +82%
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $5,822 +$152 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $383 12h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 12h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $572 12h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $493 12h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $298 12h
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 14d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 14d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 14d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 14d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 14d
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $69 14d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 41¢ $49 14d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $286 14d
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $14 16d
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $46 16d
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $148 16d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 16d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 31¢ $47 16d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 16d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 31¢ $47 16d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 16d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 16d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 98¢ $699 17d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $15,041 17d
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $27 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,348.62 · official $2,348.62 (match) · 3500 history records