Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c60…5c52 other 183 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$749 (+7%) realized +$539 · open +$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate72%84W / 33L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$4,895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$5
14 days−$34
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$551
other 39% +$198
sports 2% −$20
politics 2% +$28
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -2.1% -11.5% 64% 61% -10.0%
≤30d 54 +7.9% -2.3% 67% 59% -0.5%
≤90d 115 +7.1% -3.1% 71% 62% -2.2%
all 117 +7.1% -3.1% 72% 62% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 62% -2.2%
10% -12.4% 38% -11.5%
15% -20.8% 20% -20.1%
20% -28.6% 9% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$29 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$4,895
Realized+$539
Unrealized+$210
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses84 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions66
Markets (closed)117 / 183
History coverage108d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 66 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $894 $915 +$21 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $800 $795 −$5 (-1%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $637 $654 +$18 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $312 $357 +$45 (+14%)
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 84¢ $182 $224 +$42 (+23%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $228 $207 −$21 (-9%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 75¢ 92¢ $134 $164 +$30 (+22%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $147 $161 +$14 (+10%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 41¢ 86¢ $50 $104 +$54 (+109%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 68¢ 78¢ $88 $101 +$12 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 79¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 88¢ 84¢ $62 $58 −$3 (-5%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 68¢ $62 $57 −$5 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 99¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+40%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 92¢ $34 $56 +$22 (+65%)
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 90¢ $43 $54 +$11 (+26%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 61¢ 99¢ $30 $50 +$19 (+62%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 48¢ $69 $47 −$21 (-31%)
Will William Pacho score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 100¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+21%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 81¢ 78¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-4%)
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 86¢ $36 $43 +$7 (+19%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 85¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $60 −$2 -3%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $46 +$14 +30%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $41 +$19 +45%
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Jun 28 $38 +$12 +32%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $34 +$16 +49%
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $7 +$3 +47%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $19 +$14 +72%
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $7 +$13 +194%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $34 +$15 +45%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $34 +$6 +19%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $44 +$6 +12%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $33 +$5 +15%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $74 +$26 +36%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $29 +$11 +39%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $36 +$9 +24%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $45 +$5 +10%
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 +$4 +15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 18 $157 +$22 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -17%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 12 $55 +$7 +13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $108 +$15 +14%
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Jun 09 $229 +$5 +2%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 06 $76 +$8 +11%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 05 $45 +$10 +22%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $19 +$4 +19%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 03 $202 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $12 +$18 +156%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $37 +$8 +23%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $59 +$14 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$29 +59%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $84 +$16 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $58 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $94 25h
Will Mateo Kovačić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $25 25h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 28h
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $174 34h
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $4 37h
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $5 37h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 45¢ $0 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 45¢ $2 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 45¢ $1 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 45¢ $4 42h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $23 43h
Will Mike Maignan win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 45h
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $9 2d
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 2d
Will William Pacho score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $46 2d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 81¢ $40 2d
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY Yes 76¢ $35 2d
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $2 3d
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $1 3d
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $33 3d
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $3 4d
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $22 4d
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $24 4d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,894.55 · official $4,887.71 (match) · 573 history records