Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c5d…bff2 crypto 195 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1733 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+1%) realized +$56 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%110W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1733.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1733 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 35% -8.9%
≤30d 194 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 35% -8.9%
≤90d 194 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 35% -8.9%
all 194 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 35% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1733.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 35% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 13% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 4% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses110 / 84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1733.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 74¢ 92¢ $22 $27 +$5 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 33¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$8 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$12 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$12 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.72 · official $27.52 · 1928 history records