Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c5d…36ee sports 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%32W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$22
politics 25% −$9
sports 22% −$13
crypto 8% −$6
world 5% −$9
finance 4% −$20
economics 4% −$5
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -7.3% -16.1% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 76 -0.5% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.9%
all 180 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses32 / 148
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)180 / 181
History coverage167d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 97¢ 97¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $43 −$6 -14%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $108 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $417 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 03 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $68 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 02 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $92 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 02 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $110 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $233 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 28 $69 −$1 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 27 $138 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $102 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $46 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $363 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 21 $243 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $65 $0 +1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 18 $196 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $333 −$2 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $479 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $649 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $57 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $37 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 14d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 27d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 27d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 40d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 41d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 52d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 52d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 52d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 52d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $48 52d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $48 52d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 52d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL No 93¢ $67 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 94¢ $68 53d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 53d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $45 53d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $59 53d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $60 53d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 90¢ $67 53d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 91¢ $68 53d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $56 53d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $57 54d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 54d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 54d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 95¢ $49 54d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $49 54d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $56 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.16 · official $57.16 (match) · 733 history records