Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c5a…e323 crypto 1503 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$5,595 (+5%) realized −$940 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate87%1309W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day215.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$252
14 days−$940
30 days−$940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$939
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 869 +0.8% -8.8% 80% 9% -10.0%
≤30d 1503 +0.5% -9.1% 87% 5% -10.3%
≤90d 1503 +0.5% -9.1% 87% 5% -10.3%
all 1503 +0.5% -9.1% 87% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 5% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 1% -18.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$940
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1309 / 194
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1503 / 1503
History coverage9d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day215.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records