Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:35:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7C 0x7c56…81a9 sports 585 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-0%) realized −$103 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate77%482W / 140L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$870per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$1,624
other 24% −$676
world 0% +$36
crypto 0% −$291
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -51.6% -56.2% 43% 13% -26.8%
≤30d 269 -18.2% -26.0% 74% 8% -13.5%
≤90d 587 -9.7% -18.3% 79% 7% -10.4%
all 622 -7.2% -16.1% 77% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 7% -10.3%
10% -24.1% 2% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here -31.4% 2% -26.8%
20% -38.2% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,321) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$81 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses482 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions1
Markets (closed)622 / 585
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$870
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 622 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $353 $346 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Long Beach State Beach vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Jun 16 $1 −$8 -760%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Jazz Jun 16 $113 −$113 -100%
Jaguars vs. Texans Jun 16 $350 −$350 -100%
Avalanche vs. Predators Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Alex Michelsen vs Taylor Fritz Jun 16 $1 −$2 -186%
Spread: 76ers (-8.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Hawks vs. Bucks Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Avalanche vs. Stars Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Jun 16 $88 −$92 -104%
Ohio Bobcats vs. Ball State Cardinals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 238.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Flyers vs. Rangers Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Eagles vs. Chargers Jun 16 $142 −$142 -100%
Panthers vs. Red Wings Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Red Wings vs. Predators Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bills vs. Dolphins Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
North Carolina A&T Aggies vs. Monmouth Hawks Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Oilers vs. Blues Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-18.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
UMBC Retrievers vs. NJIT Highlanders Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Titans vs. Browns Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. SMU Mustangs Jun 16 $541 −$541 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
LAR vs. Panthers Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
San Jose State Spartans vs. Boise State Broncos Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs. Austin Peay Governors Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Saints vs. Buccaneers Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. UNCW Seahawks Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bears vs. Eagles Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Islanders vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $896 +$38 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $686 +$13 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $41 +$9 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 +$10 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $388 +$18 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $213 +$1 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $708 +$111 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $182 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $933 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $133 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $208 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $102 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $128 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $699 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $686 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $41 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $93 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $40 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $98 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $100 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $406 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $214 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $36 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $300 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $89 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.00 · official $346.00 (match) · 3500 history records