Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c56…e756 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,614 (-7%) realized −$1,616 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate59%37W / 26L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$72
14 days+$94
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$1,543
other 34% −$277
tech 10% +$72
culture 5% +$147
politics 1% −$64
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +3.8% -6.1% 76% 52% -5.2%
≤30d 23 +4.3% -5.6% 74% 52% -4.1%
≤90d 23 +4.3% -5.6% 74% 52% -4.1%
all 63 -21.9% -29.3% 59% 29% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 29% -16.6%
10% -36.1% 13% -24.5%
15% -42.3% 11% -31.8%
20% -47.9% 10% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$106 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized−$1,616
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses37 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)63 / 69
History coverage406d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 96¢ $77 $85 +$8 (+11%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $69 $75 +$6 (+8%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 57¢ $66 $71 +$5 (+7%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Under 85¢ 100¢ $52 $61 +$9 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $33 +$7 +22%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 +$5 +10%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $224 +$36 +16%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $116 +$6 +5%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $48 −$32 -67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $27 +$5 +18%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 +$2 +2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 +$3 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 +$33 +89%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $114 +$20 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$37 +146%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $22 +$13 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $44 +$15 +34%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $88 +$13 +14%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $190 +$11 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$13 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $38 −$9 -24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $46 +$55 +120%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Heat vs. Thunder Jan 12 $484 −$34 -7%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jan 12 $1,516 −$1,516 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12? Jan 12 $20 +$15 +77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $20 −$12 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 11? Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jan 11 $2,132 +$192 +9%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $50 +$20 +41%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jan 11 $257 −$200 -78%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 11 $630 −$24 -4%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Jan 11 $2,263 +$72 +3%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jan 09 $232 +$31 +14%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $457 +$5 +1%
Heat vs. Timberwolves Jan 07 $430 +$22 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 07 $420 +$48 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $376 +$11 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $1,673 −$188 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $23 −$22 -96%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 06 $2,701 +$79 +3%
Hornets vs. Thunder Jan 06 $1,375 +$60 +4%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 06 $444 +$19 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jan 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Clippers vs. Thunder Jan 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jan 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Nuggets vs. Nets Jan 05 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Chargers vs. Broncos Jan 05 $561 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 37m
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $50 38m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $91 59m
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $46 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $52 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $33 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $260 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $121 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $122 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $15 18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $116 18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $88 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $31 45h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $27 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $105 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $27 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 3d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 54¢ $67 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $69 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $37 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $26 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $12 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $24 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 90¢ $29 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 83¢ $84 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.95 · official $456.39 (match) · 221 history records